Forfettario vs cedolare for short-term rentals: above €15,000 of revenue P.IVA wins, even with a single property
Cedolare secca (Italy's flat-rate rental tax) at 21% is not always the best choice. The regime forfettario startup variant, even with a single property, beats the cedolare starting at roughly €15,000 in annual gross revenue. At €20,000, the gap is about €960 more net profit per year. On this page you'll find the comparison table, exact breakeven thresholds, and when cedolare remains the right call.
In sintesi
Example at €20,000 annual revenue, single property: regime forfettario startup with 35% INPS social-security reduction yields €16,758 net, cedolare 21% yields €15,800 net, cedolare 26% yields €14,800 net. P.IVA forfettario startup wins by nearly €1,000/year.
Breakeven thresholds (above which forfettario wins):
- Forfettario startup with 35% INPS reduction vs cedolare 21%: above ~€15,000 annual revenue
- Forfettario startup without INPS reduction vs cedolare 21%: above ~€22,700
- Forfettario from year 6 onward (15% rate) vs cedolare 21%: above ~€20,000
- All forfettario variants vs cedolare 26% (second property): above ~€10,000
Caveats: the calculation assumes a 40% profitability coefficient (short-term rentals), standard 2026 INPS Gestione Artigiani/Commercianti contributions, and no other relevant income. Verify with your commercialista (Italian accountant).
The exact numbers: 6 tax scenarios compared at €20,000 of revenue
Same gross revenue (€20,000), single property, different regimes. The gap between the best and the worst regime (cedolare 26%) is nearly €2,000 in annual net profit.
| Item | Forf. startup (with 35% INPS red.) | Forf. startup (no INPS red.) | Forf. from yr 6 (15% rate) | Cedolare 21% (first property) | Cedolare 26% (second property) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue received | 20.000,00 | 20.000,00 | 20.000,00 | 20.000,00 | 20.000,00 |
| Gross taxable income | 8.000,00 | 8.000,00 | 8.000,00 | 20.000,00 | 20.000,00 |
| INPS deduction | -2.991,12 | -4.549,80 | -2.991,12 | n/a | n/a |
| Net taxable income | 5.008,88 | 3.450,20 | 5.008,88 | n/a | n/a |
| Substitute tax | 250,44 | 172,51 | 751,33 | 4.200,00 | 5.200,00 |
| Annual net profit | 16.758,44 | 15.277,69 | 16.257,55 | 15.800,00 | 14.800,00 |
Notes on INPS calculation: INPS Gestione Artigiani/Commercianti 2026 ≈ €4,549.80/year (€1,137.45 × 4 quarters); with the 35% reduction it drops to roughly €2,991.12/year (€747.78 × 4). The 35% reduction must be explicitly requested when registering with INPS.
40% profitability coefficient for room-rental and holiday-home businesses (ATECO codes in the 55.20.5x family). Verify the exact ATECO code and current rates with your commercialista.
Exact breakeven thresholds: at what revenue does forfettario start winning?
The €20,000 in the example is just one point on a curve. Here are the precise thresholds, computed case by case. Below the threshold, cedolare secca wins. Above it, forfettario wins.
| Comparison | Breakeven (annual revenue) | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Forf. startup with 35% INPS red. vs cedolare 21% | ~€15,000 | Below: cedolare 21%. Above: forfettario. |
| Forf. startup without INPS red. vs cedolare 21% | ~€22,700 | Full INPS raises the breakeven point. |
| Forf. from year 6 (15% rate) vs cedolare 21% | ~€20,000 | Once the startup phase ends, the advantage shrinks. |
| All forfettario variants vs cedolare 26% | ~€10,000 | On the second property, P.IVA almost always wins. |
The formulas (for those who want to check the math)
Let R = annual revenue in euros:
- Cedolare 21%: net profit = R × 0.79 (no INPS, no deductions)
- Cedolare 26%: net profit = R × 0.74
- Forfettario startup with 35% INPS reduction: net profit ≈ R × 0.98 − €2,841.56 (because you pay €2,991 deductible INPS and 5% on the remaining taxable base)
- Forfettario startup without INPS reduction: net profit ≈ R × 0.98 − €4,322.31
- Forfettario from year 6 (15%): net profit ≈ R × 0.94 − €2,542.45
Breakeven = the value of R for which two formulas give the same net profit. Example: forfettario startup with reduction vs cedolare 21% → 0.98R − 2,841.56 = 0.79R → R = €14,955 (rounded to 15,000).
When cedolare remains the right choice
- Below ~€15,000 annual revenue: INPS for the forfettario weighs disproportionately heavy
- If you don't want the formal obligations of P.IVA: electronic invoices (fattura elettronica), annual return, INPS, ATECO-code admin, possibly a monthly commercialista
- If you have a single property and plan to keep it that way: cedolare's simplicity can be worth more than the €1,000/year tax advantage
- If you don't meet the forfettario requirements: shareholdings in companies, employment income above the threshold, similar activity in the previous 3 years, revenue above €85,000
What if I have more than one property?
From 2026 the limit for staying under the private cedolare regime is 2 properties (verify with your commercialista; readings of the 2026 Italian Budget Law vary). Above that threshold you must switch to a business-tax regime with P.IVA. At that point the choice is no longer "cedolare vs forfettario" but "which P.IVA regime to open": forfettario (if you qualify, revenue below €85,000), simplified, or ordinary.
For structured property managers (PM) with 5+ units, forfettario startup is almost always the best starting point, as long as you stay under the €85,000 threshold. Above that, you move to simplified (deduction of actual costs, VAT applied with input VAT recovery on purchases). Deep dive: regime forfettario for short-term rentals.
How Dott.House helps you see your real net
The numbers on this page are based on gross revenue. To decide well, you need the real net margin: after OTA commissions, non-deductible VAT, cleaning, linen, business expenses. Dott.House lets you set the tax regime per property and shows the post-tax margin automatically, so the cedolare vs P.IVA decision is grounded in your numbers, not a generic example. Deep dive: how to calculate the real margin on short-term rentals.
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